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Archive for July, 2008

Jul 13 2008

Bonds Safer Than Bear Market

Published by bsimes under Uncategorized Edit This

Buster Olney has brought up the chance that the Red Sox will make a proactive move in order to assure themselves some offensive production from the DH spot should David Ortiz fail to return to health and his expected level of performance before July 31st.

My response: don’t do it.

First of all, the reports are positive on Ortiz, and David Arias’s alias will have plenty of time to round into form for the stretch run when he’ll truly be needed.  If Ortiz glitchlessly returns to the lineup, all questions disappear and the Sox head into the playoffs as World Series favorites assuming a successful arrival behind the right field wall at Fenway from Justin Masterson and some general statistical evening-out occurs for the rest of the relief posse.

Next, there are better options than trading coveted prospects for temporary and/or redundant pieces of an already delightful puzzle.  Mark Teixiera and Matt Holliday would crowd the Sox dugout, providing momentary tranquility with little chance at lasting.  Both will demand gigantic long-term contracts, ones Theo may have no desire to hand out to players with no clear positional future with the team.  In this case Holliday fits better, as the team could simply view him as a replacement for Manny Ramirez at season’s end, but he could also be had for money alone later on, rather than money and prospects.

Lastly, better options await phone calls and short dollars: Barry Bonds and Richie Sexson.

Bonds will likely outperform any player available through any form of transaction this season; he did manage a .480 on base percentage and a 1.045 OPS last season.  Bonds is, well, the greatest offensive force the game has seen since George Herman Ruth.  Meanwhile, Sexson could platoon with the capable Sean Casey as a fantastic DH duo for the remainder of the year.  Sexson posted a 1.046 OPS against lefties before his release from the Mariners earlier this month, and Casey has managed to hit .370 in his first 100 Boston at-bats against right-handers.  Both options have their risk, specifically the media barrage Bonds brings and one of the ugliest swings in baseball (as well as one of the least prone to contact against righties) for our other gargantuan DH option, but in each case, the Sox would only have to part with the thing they have the most of, money.

It’s always easy to say trade this guy or trade that guy, and if it brings a championship it’s probably worth it.  But when you have the option to buy the pot rather than get burned on a poor read, you take the easy win.  If need be, go get ‘em, Theo, but take the sure bet.

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Jul 08 2008

MLB Musings

Published by bsimes under Uncategorized Edit This

  • The Rich Harden trade could be a coup for the Cubs.  They got the guy with the best gas in baseball for a B pitching prospect (from Boston, MA!) who projects as a number four starter in the AL, a quality corner outfielder in Matt Murton, and some spare pieces with C potential.  There’s plenty of risk involved, but I like the move by Jim Hendry, and Billy Beane made a nice move for the long-term, one that won’t hurt much this season either.
  • The precursor to the Harden deal, CC Sabathia’s arrival in Mikwaukee, was a solid move for both clubs.  Keith Law thinks the Indians could have done better, and when it comes to opinions Law usually has the best, but I’m not so sure in this case.  I like getting a potential power bat in Matt LaPorta and the rest is too far and too to be named later to really know about at this point.  With Sabathia most likely bolting to a big market team (perhaps the Steinbrothers will make a splash with loads of money coming off the payroll after this season) I believe the Poorly Named Clevelanders did well for themselves.
  • Terry Francona has disappointed a bit lately.  His hit-and-run down one with Mike Lowell on first and Jason Varitek at bat against the Rays the other day was inexplicable.  Tek has trouble making contact at all at this point, and to ask him to execute repeatedly with a slow runner on in the 9th was silly.  Furthermore, his handling of Jon Lester tonight against Minnesota was poorly planned.  Francona left Lester in to start the 8th when the young southernpaw had already thrown 101 pitches in seven innings, and only removed his Schilling replacement as personal personnel favorite after he allowed the first two batters to reach, then struck out Craig Monroe.  Bringing in David Aardsma earlier would have been the logical move.  This doesn’t mean I want Tito’s head or anything, but he should get back on his game.  The Sox bats have covered for him tonight, though, meaning most won’t notice any of this.

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