The Sports Beat

BJ Upton screwed up again last night.  This time it wasn’t on the bases, but in center field, where he’s generally pretty good.  With a man on first in extra innings our main man Willy Mays Hays’d it after a ball lofted to deep center.  The runner at first was the infamous AJ Pierzynski, and, well, strange things seem to happen when AJ’s involved.  Naturally the Chicago catcher displayed his uncanny knack for stirring the pot, safely beating Upton’s panic-stricken throw to second.  On the ensuing play, madness occurred, and an umpire bailed out a mistake by AJ, and a slap shot to shallow right from Alexei “Yo No Ando” Ramirez later, the mistake turned out to be BJ’s as the Rays lost their first game of the year after leading in the 9th inning (they were an astounding 69-0 prior to yesterday).

Now I really hate to keep ragging on the guy, because according to my source(s) he’s a good person (similar to when I had a little help on the KG trade front, I do actually have a source here).  BUT, the elder Upton has shown himself to be rather foolish.

When in the minor leagues, he made headlines by griping about that fact; he felt he should have been on the major league roster.  In his first couple stints with Tampa Bay he struggled mightily (as you might expect from a 21/22-year-old), and since stepping up his production over the last two years, he’s nonethless failed to maintain the power displayed in 2007.  And then there’s been the “hustle” issue.

BJ is still a great player to have on a roster.  He’s talented, young, inexpensive, and projects as a future All Star.  But thus far he hasn’t shown the ability to quickly adjust, which has held him back from becoming the best player on the best team in baseball, a title he’s quite capable of holding. 

Here’s hoping he’s just a slow learner.

Since a couple days ago I talked about not who should win the AL MVP but about who will win it, today I’m going to do mostly the opposite in analyzing the AL Cy Young race.  Why the change?  In this case there’s really only three guys with any sort of realistic shot, and one who stands alone as the clear-cut favorite.  That man is Cliff Lee.

Lee leads the league in winning percentage, wins, and ERA, and is second in innings pitched and third in WHIP.  He’s also got a nifty 5.58 K/BB ratio and holds the eighth spot in overall strike outs.  So, he’ll be winning the damn thing.  Done.

The only other two options are Francisco Rodriguez and Roy Halladay.

K-Rod likely will end 2008 with the all-time saves record, but other than that somewhat noteworthy acheivement (sardonic emphasis on somewhat), he’s really having a rather average season for a quality closer.  He’s on pace for a 2.81 ERA in 68 innings.  Yawn.

That leaves us the Canadian Ace, Mr. Halladay.  Roy has thrown 20.1 more innings than Lee and has a slightly better WHIP (1.04 to 1.08), but the tall righty’s ERA stands at .21 runs per 9 higher than his contemporary.  So, based on the discrepancy in records (Lee is 17-2 and Halladay is 14-9), Lee’s going to win.  The problem is I’m not sure he should.

I view the Cy Young as the award for the best pitcher in the league.  The best pitcher is the guy who gives his team the best chance to win as often as possible, in my humble opinion.  That means performance and durability are essential.  And Lee falls just short of matching Halladay in that combo.

The difference is innings pitched.  When two pitchers have ERAs within a small range of each other, if one pitches substantially more innings than the other, he is more valuable.  Call it the certainty factor.

Halladay’s 20.1 extra innings at a 2.64 ERA are tremendously valuable.  Finding the necessary relievers to provide those innings at that success rate is costly, and places a stress on the rest of the pitching staff.  Having a guy provide as many outs as Halladay is a huge benefit to his team.  So, it’s important to understand that if a guy throws five shutout innings, that’s tremendous, but giving up 2 runs over 7 or 8 innings is actually better in the abstract. 

Thus Roy Halladay is more valuable than someone like Pedro Martinez in his later Boston years, despite the fact that Pedro was more dominant.  Rich Harden is a great current example–he’s more dominant per outing but contributes less overall to his team.  Come playoff time, you’d rather have the zeros up on the board–it’s a tiny sample size and you can tax your pen as much as you need to–but during the regular season, which the Cy Young is based solely upon, you sometimes choose quantity over quality.

So, what does all this mean?  Nothing.  But for those of you who haven’t realized what a pitcher Roy Halladay is, appreciate him now, because he might just be a shell of his former self in a year or two from, of all things, overuse.

• Usain Bolt is the coolest man in the world.  There is no one I’d rather be than Usain Bolt, with the lone possible exception of Snoop Dogg.  Bolt owns the competition.  He’s so fast that he obliterates world records and celebrates that fact long before he finishes the race.  He also does that cool lightning bolt thing before he runs, and is tall and jacked.  Sounds like an ideal wide receiver.  Only if he signed with an NFL team instead of celebrating and having fun like he does now, Skip Bayless and the No Fun League would freak out and convince people that enjoying the game is inherently wrong.
• Jed Lowrie is solid.  He’s infinitely better than Julio Lugo, who my roommate calls “The Drunk” and had a domestic violence dispute long before he started being absolutely terrible at baseball.  Lowrie could be our replacement for Lugo next year, and then perhaps Mike Lowell in a couple more if this year’s #1 pick, Casey Kelly, remains at the 5 on your box score.  I love all the players the Boston system has started producing, but the next wave–Lars Anderson, Josh Reddick, et al–are going to have to produce big offensive numbers now that Manny’s gone, Bay’ll likely be gone after next year, and Papi’s nearing the end of his prime.
• The NBA East is actually getting better now.  With the Jermaine O’Neal and Mo Williams trades making the Cavs and Raptors much scarier, the signing of Elton Brand by Philly, and the arrival of Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley, things are finally started to get interesting on the elder coast.  I would push the number of bonafied conference title contenders to five, Boston, Detroit, Philly, Toronto, and Cleveland, with Orlando a tiny notch below (one or two smart moves away).
• Ben Gordon is insane.  He thinks he’s worth star money when he only has one skill–granted the one that generally earns the most–and is short for his position.  From Jordan to Gordon?  Not so much.
• Autumn means falling leaves, crisp nights, and the best time of the year to be a sports fan.  October will be here before you know it; hopefully Dane Cook won’t be its spokesperson this time around.
• Brett Favre is to ESPN as Barack Obama is to CNN.

Since it’s nigh September and that means the end of the season, I’ve decided it’s time for pointless MVP banter!

But, what you’re not going to get here is an argument as to who should win the MVP, because that concept is really irrelevant. I don’t vote, and neither do Rob Neyer or Keith Law, but nearly-distinct dinosaurs (read: not yet bought out sportswriters) do. And they LOVE RBI. Runs Batted In. Mention the term and MVP voters turn into virgin, pubescent boys–all they can think about is scoring.

Granted, an RBI means a run scored, but it really doesn’t tell us much else. And don’t get too angry at me for saying this–I’ve played the game plenty (at a higher level than the majority of ballplayers), watched the game obsessively, and read and thought about it more than is healthy–but counting runs batted in is mostly a waste of time. There is only one instance when you can create an RBI all by yourself (a homerun), and all other occurrences require a teammate to do at least half the work. So, forget RBI when thinking objectively and analytically on your own time. BUT, when thinking about MVP voters, keep RBI central to the discussion. The only thing MVP voters like more than RBI is winning–another statistic based substantially on the performance of others. Oh, and a damned good story–they are writers, after all.

SO, I will now give my top 5 2008 AL MVP candidates based on what the voters will likely choose:

1. Carlos Quentin-.965 OPS, 91 RBI, 33 HR, 69-53 team record, no one saw this happening so quickly
2. Josh Hamilton-.917 OPS, 112 RBI, everyone’s favorite former-flameout, 61-62 team record
3. Kevin Youkilis-.964 OPS, 83 RBI, versatile, first Jewish MVP since Hank Greenberg?, 71-51 team record
4. Alex Rodriguez-.983 OPS, 72 RBI, Madonna Drama!, 65-58 team record
5. Ian Kinsler-.888 OPS, 70 RBI (from a second baseman!), actually having a phenomenal season, should have started at the ASG over Dustin Pedroia, 61-62 team record

So, it looks like Carlos Quentin is the favorite halfway through August. Milton Bradley might be having the best season on the Rangers but he’s an angry (black–which may or may not play a part) man who DHs for a second-place team so that won’t be happening. Kevin Youkilis is a real threat, but given that he’s one of the most hated players in the game and his team is in second place (despite the fact that Boston has a better record than the White Sox, their division standing will somehow matter to voters), he probably will not be taking the award. Alex Rodriguez remains the best overall player in the game, but third place on the Yankees won’t cut it, especially since he missed time. Ian Kinsler is having a better season than Josh Hamilton, but they’ll split their votes and most will go to Hamilton and his infinite RBI anyway. That leaves Quentin, who fulfills the love for RBI, brings a nice “Who woulda thunk that?” storyline, and plays for a winner in a big market.

Now that’s valuable.

At least they’re not throwing bananas at soccer players of African descent.

Recently, the Spanish Men’s Olympic Basketball Team posed for a full-squad photo. An act that should have been innoculous enough, especially considering the frequency with which it occurs, went slightly awry, as some of you may have heard. The photo, shot for an advertising campaign run by Li-Ning Footwear, featured the entire team pulling their eyelids to the sides to play on the “slant-eye” appearance of the Chinese company’s billion-strong consumer audience.

Henry Abbott, author of the widely-read basketball blog TrueHoop, shared his opinion on the matter yesterday:

“To my way of thinking, that photo was the exact kind of callous, stupid, and juvenile behavior that used to take place all over the world, but has slowed dramatically now that people have begun to realize that different kinds of people all over the world are complex humans with emotions, too. Call it political correctness if you want, but here, in the United States of 2008, I think just about everyone knows this photo would hurt feelings.

But I really don’t know much about the frame of reference from which these young Spanish men made the call. By their comments in response, the players all seem to think of themselves as innocent and open-minded. They were being “affectionate” said one. The idea that it was racist was “absurd” said another.”

Quite simply, Abbott is dead on. It’s the inability to see the effects of your actions on others that marks immaturity. Why not have a food fight? Someone else will clean it up. Who cares if I make fun of her acne? She should get it fixed if she doesn’t want us to laugh.

In my somewhat limited experience with Spanish culture (I’ve spent about two months in the country), immaturity on racial issues seems to be a serious problem. Absurd advertising that demeans entire cultures is nothing new. While in Spain I saw countless products featuring chocolate babies who couldn’t possibly be misconstrued as anything other than a characature of a monkey infant. Just take a look for yourself.

Deeply disturbed after my first viewing of such repugnant packaging I asked an educated, elegant, enlightened world traveller, Pedro, who hails from Leon, how such a product could sell?

“We don’t think like you Americans here,” he replied. “We don’t think everything is racist.”

Now, not thinking like an American is nothing to be ashamed of, but employing willful ignorance is. In short, this train of though is stupid–we ought to know better.

So how could this possibly happen just in time for the world’s most international event? As Chris Chase writes, under the auspices of Yahoo.com’s Fourth Place Medal blog, it’s nothing short of incredible:

“It’s baffling that nobody involved in the picture — from the photographers to the players — even seemed to consider that this ad would be looked at negatively. Did it not occur to somebody that it might not be a good idea to mock a large portion of the continent before the world’s largest athletic competition that, by the way, happens to take place on that continent. Were they not aware of an invention called “the Internet” that allows pictures taken in Spain to be transmitted all over the world for the eyes of everyone?”

So, for the untold number of people involved in planning and implementing this advertising campaign, as well as those who claim to look past racial differences so far that racism isn’t racism, I think it’s time to grow up. After all, it’s the 21st century, and at least where I’m from, 21 means adulthood.

Some might say the Red Sox hit two byrds with one stone with their most recent trade.

I wouldn’t, because that would be a terrible pun.  However, Theo’s latest transaction follows suit with the general Boston philosophy of stockpiling cheap assets in the hopes of overcoming injuries. 

Byrd provides a semi-serviceable starter for a team that has struggled to field one in its fifth spot in the rotation and just lost its most reliable starter to, essentially, old age.  Charlie Zink is a decent option to replace his fellow knuckleballer right now but going more than start to start with him isn’t something Terry Francona’s going to want to do in the thick of a pennant race, especially with Clay Buchholz sporting an ERA rising more rapidly than gas prices. 

Whether Paul Byrd will be the guy who has dominated since the All Star Break or the pitcher whose ERA away from Jacobs Field this season is a robust 5.56 remains anyone’s guess, but his arrival means another option for the Sox.  Between Byrd, Charlie Zink, Bartolo Colon, Clay Buchholz, David Pauley, and Michael Bowden, Boston has at least given itself a solid shot in its hunt for October.

*** 

While deals similar to the Indians sending Paul Byrd to the Red Sox for a couple coupons and a free ride on Baltic in Monopoly happen often after the July 31st trade deadline, moving a quality player like Adam Dunn occurs much more infrequently.

Dunn brings power and patience, perhaps the perfect antidote for an offense so barren these days you’d think Persephone had gone missing.  He’ll likely be nothing more than the equivalent of a summer sublet, but he’ll be the ultimate short-term pad.  The move positions Arizona for a run at the bronze medal of division titles, and gives baseball’s latest and most western fertility-drug-produced twin a nice comeback in the back-and-forth with the Motivated Mannys from L.A., who rest a mere game back of the first place Diamondbacks.

For a team that made it to the NLCS last year and has fallen on hard times despite a talented roster a move of this order fits like a classic pair of jeans.  Dunn will help keep the team afloat in the hopes that it can find its early-season form and follow its dynamic top of the rotation to a series victory or two in the playoffs before the start of the slaughter that the World Series has become.