The Sports Beat

Here are some random observations from the first few weeks of the NBA season:

• The Celtics appear to be just as we expected–a tad bit less enthusiastic, playing at a slightly slower pace, with Rondo’s stats improving and everyone else’s dropping (although it’s very early and PERs below 15.00 from many rotation members should change positively).
• LeBron and Kevin Durant have mostly stopped jacking threes.  This is good news for their teams, since neither has demonstrated sufficient range yet to hit from deep. Durant, however, will almost certainly reach a point when he becomes lethal from international waters whereas Prince James will likely not. If LeBron limits his three-point attempts to one open shot per game he’ll increase his efficiency even more–difficult considering he’s the best player on the planet (sorry, P^2, you won a title but that title–BPOTP–remains LeBron’s).
• Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, Amare Stoudamire, and LeBron own the Association now and will for the next 5-10 years.
• The Piston-Nuggets trade is a strange one. It’s perfect for Denver, except for McDyess messing things up a bit, but questionable for the Pistons.  AI at Detroit’s point fits worse than an isotoner on O.J. Simpson. He doesn’t play defense and is a volume scorer prone to turnovers on a stoic team in need of more Rodney Stuckey, not less. The cap room Detroit receives is tremendous, but it’s hard to see LeBron choosing the Motor City over Brooklyn, Manhattan, or any of the many suitors he’ll have–from Cleveland to Italy. This move sets up Joe Dumars’ team up for another playoff failure before the rebuilding really starts.
• Philadelphia will be alright. They’ve got an impressive starting lineup that will right itself in time and Thaddeus Young is perfect stroking from range at the small forward position.  The 20-year-old from Georgia Tech is shooting an absurd 48% from behind the big arc and 52% overall. He might just turn out to be good enough to throw his name into the Amare-LeBron-CP3-Dwight Howard ring in a few years.
• The Lakers are scary good. Their point differential during a 4-0 start is an insane 20.8 points per game. They are the favorites.

The end of a season is usually a tough pill to swallow.  After countless hours “wasted” watching grown men at child’s play, you can’t stomach the thought that the season, and the team you’ve watched over like your seed, is gone.  Curt Flood assured us of this fact.  Your team will not be the same the next year.  Faces, personalities, and abilities all fall with autumn leaves.

I am a devout follower of the religion known as baseball.  Although I’ve always felt strongly about the game that gave us Jackie Robinson and Ted Williams, I was once a Red Sox fan first.  Suffering, as ridiculous as it is to call not winning a World Series as such, was my makeup.  I could take it, because I had to.  With the end of every season, none more harsh than that of 2003, I steadied myself with the knowledge that in the spring the newly formed Red Sox “Nation” would be back stronger than ever, improved and ready to clash with the Empire, or any other foe standing in the way (although there really was no one else keeping us in purgatory).  

And then, 2004 happened. 

After Idiots came back, I became a man, at least in the baseball sense.  I’m now a fan of the game first, with the Sox a close 1A.

In this light, we head to Game 5 at Fenway Park against the team I had kept an eye on for years.  To channel Jim Morrison, Tampa Bay had the guns but we had the numbers.  Or at least until Daisuke Matsuzaka took the mound Thursday evening down the street from Kenmore Square.

Homer after homer sailed over the Green Monster, deflating a crowd that had been pumped past its suggested PSI. 

Down 5-0, with the departure of the least-enthralling good pitcher I’ve ever watched, I decided it was time to take a break and tune in to The Office.  After a fantastic half hour of Steve Carrell’s awkwardness, we tuned back in to the slaughter of the Sox, one that was looking bloodier than Curt Schilling’s celebrity stocking, more out of duty than desire.

You stay loyal above all else.  See it through to the end. 

As my roommate had predicted, Manny Delcarmen had spotted Tampa an additional two runs of insurance–and quality stuff, no AIG accepted in Florida.  It was all over.  The only question was whether or not we could muster a run and avoid a shutout before they shovelled dirt over our eyes.  Or so we thought.

A break here, a smart play there, an eruption from Papi’s eerily silent bat, and another J.D. Drew post-season resurrection later, it had happened.  The game was back on, and so was the season.

Down 7-0 with two outs in the bottom of the 7th, the Boston Red Sox had come back. 

Perplexed, I watched with equal parts disbelief and fear.  I had already moved on, and here she was, my ex-love, wooing me back.  It couldn’t possibly end well, but foolishly I had hitched myself back to my love.  Perhaps it was shadenfreude, but I couldn’t look away.

At 12:16 am on October 17th I remembered why I watch.

We spend our time and money hoping special athletes who may or may not be special people (and trust me, several of your favorite players are far from that) will give us the feeling that overtook us when we were young. That’s what sports is all about–the reclamation of our youthful exuberance. 

In the opening lines of Friday morning I felt the way I did in 2003 when Derek Lowe threw the greatest two-seam fastball I had ever seen to an unsuspecting Terence Long.

After J.D. Drew hit a line drive that sailed over the head of Tampa Bay’s Gabe Gross, silent screams in the depth of night mixed with leaps of immeasurable height had me feeling 17 again.

First of all, this ALCS thing is not over.  It’s almost over, but still, not yet.

Anyway, now that we’ve got our unlikely caveat out of the way, let’s look to the offseason.

I’ve got some simple plans to alter this team and make it even better than this year (95 wins and a trip to the second round is nothing to scoff at, especially with so many health issues).

In rapid succession, here it is:

• Get rid of Heidi Watney and Jason Varitek.  Notice their juxtaposition.  I’ll not go any further, but yeah, both really must go.  It’s been a great run for Tek, but his time has come to head to yellower pastures.  He simply has lost it, and as much as I’d love to see him rebound, seeing as he’ll turn 37 on April 11th, he’s as likely to do so as was Spud Webb.
• Turn Mike Timlin into the assistant bullpen coach.  His value lies in the wisdom he dispenses on subjects such as sitting around doing nothing, pirates, and playing the drums on the bullpen dugout with pirate swords.  Perfect.  Oh, and he shouldn’t even pitch BP anymore, because our team will be shocked when it can’t hit every pitch out in real games if he does.
• Say goodbye to Tim Wakefield and his personal catcher-to-be-named-later.  It’s not that this hasn’t worked in the past with Tek in his peak or near peak and a typical Wakefield season, but I’m disliking it more and more.  Wake’s performance has become a little iffier with his oncoming age–injuries and a lack of strength at the end of the season have come to lower his value despite a nice contract–and having to have a backup who can catch one specific pitch above all else will be difficult to stomach like food for Nicole Richie when we might have a battle for the number one spot on our hands in 2009.
• Next, work the kids in even more.  Send Justin Masterson back as the fifth starter, using him from the ‘pen until his rotation spot is needed later in April or May in order to limit his innings, and then switch him back to power set-up man should circumstances permit/warrant come September/October.
• In turn, give Clay Buchholz a full season as our number four.  I really don’t think we can give up on a talent like the laptop thief before he hits us over the head with failure like Daniel Cabrera until we go unconscious.  Buchholz still has what it takes to provide us with one of poker’s most improbable hands alongside Beckett, Lester, and Daisuke (not quad aces, three aces and a queen in Matsuzaka, actually).  If it all works as hoped, we’ll have five phenomenal starters and be in perfect shape for the postseason with a strong bullpen.
• Additionally, the bullpen will feature more young arms.  Daniel Bard and Michael Bowden could earn shots, as could other youngsters such as Bryce Cox.  Jeff Bailey (although not young) and Chris Carter should see some part-time employment, while Dusty Brown and George Kottaras throw their hats into the ring for catching jobs in Boston.
• Next, jettison Julio Lugo.  He could act as an insurance policy a la Coco Crisp, but I doubt management wants to deal with a shortstop controversy or the distraction of Lugo wanting to play everyday even should Lowrie post impressive numbers.  Pay whatever it takes, cut your losses, aim for a low minors prospect or a potential bullpen arm.
• Find our next rock behind the plate.  Be creative–we’ve got some arms (especially Bowden, whom I’m not a big believer in as a starter in the AL East) to deal and it would make sense to trade in a couple for a young catcher.  Jarrod Saltalamacchia has been rumored for a few years; other names will certainly be bandied about.  I’ll leave the specifics up to Theo and staff, but the general concept should be followed if possible.
• Give Lars Anderson, one of the top first base prospects in the minors, at least a cup of coffee.  He’ll likely be up at first base in 2011, with Kevin Youkilis sliding over to third replacing the freshly departed Mike Lowell, so let’s see if we can’t give him a little time to get acclimated.  The same goes for Josh Reddick (assuming he’s ready, which might be a bit of an assumption) if for some reason J.D. Drew should go down (about as likely as a man winning the Presidency this year).

Given all these moves, the team will have officially changed over from its 2004-2007 version to its next generation, the one that should contend for 5-7 years running.  Power arms, plus defense, and reasonable contracts galore–sounds a lot like Tampa Bay, huh?

The New York Yankees, despite an injury bug the size of Franz Kafka, are going to finish the season with the fourth best record in the American League .  Since the “top” four teams in each league are supposed to make the playoffs, the Tankees should be looking forward to another quick exit from the postseason, and continuing Derek Jeter’s yearly berth in my birth-month.

Alas, the $200 million machine will fail the Steinbrenner Doctrine this season.  There really is no “excuse” for missing the playoffs when you spend that kind of money (other than the fact that shit happens), but did Brian Cashman truly fail, or did the system fail itself?

The Yankees making the playoffs is good for baseball.  The Yankees bring immense interest, ratings, and revenue.  Bud Selig likes those things.  So, while it’s good for baseball to see new blood, and the Rays will be supplying this sangre in 2008, Bud may have failed himself.  Not only did the Yankees finish at the top of the standings, but they did it in–by far–the best division in baseball.  According to ESPN.com’s RPI Index , the AL East sports not just the top two teams in baseball, but the fifth and sixth best teams as well (Tampa Bay, Boston, New York, and Toronto, respectively).

(By the way, the Chicago Cubs, ranked fourth, are the ONLY Senior Circuit squad ranked in the TOP EIGHT.  Yup, top eight.  Just another reminder that the National League is AAAA.)

So, what do we do about this issue?  Well, we do nothing, because we don’t have the power, and it’s not as if anyone pities the Bronx Bullies, but Bud Selig might want to do something about it.  Perhaps returning to balanced scheduling, and limiting interleague (won’t happen because of doller$) would be the best way; returning to the two division format and taking the two division winners and the next two best teams regardless of division would work, as the likelihood of some bums like the Dodgers making the playoffs while a team like the Mets or Brewers watches from home would be reduced.  I’m not sure which would work best, but I think either would work better than the current system.

Unfortunately, apathy generally rules when a problem comes along only occasionally.  And this is just one of those “occasions.”  Just like the electoral college, the three division system appears to have outlived its usefulness, but the clamor for change remains just a slogan.

BJ Upton screwed up again last night.  This time it wasn’t on the bases, but in center field, where he’s generally pretty good.  With a man on first in extra innings our main man Willy Mays Hays’d it after a ball lofted to deep center.  The runner at first was the infamous AJ Pierzynski, and, well, strange things seem to happen when AJ’s involved.  Naturally the Chicago catcher displayed his uncanny knack for stirring the pot, safely beating Upton’s panic-stricken throw to second.  On the ensuing play, madness occurred, and an umpire bailed out a mistake by AJ, and a slap shot to shallow right from Alexei “Yo No Ando” Ramirez later, the mistake turned out to be BJ’s as the Rays lost their first game of the year after leading in the 9th inning (they were an astounding 69-0 prior to yesterday).

Now I really hate to keep ragging on the guy, because according to my source(s) he’s a good person (similar to when I had a little help on the KG trade front, I do actually have a source here).  BUT, the elder Upton has shown himself to be rather foolish.

When in the minor leagues, he made headlines by griping about that fact; he felt he should have been on the major league roster.  In his first couple stints with Tampa Bay he struggled mightily (as you might expect from a 21/22-year-old), and since stepping up his production over the last two years, he’s nonethless failed to maintain the power displayed in 2007.  And then there’s been the “hustle” issue.

BJ is still a great player to have on a roster.  He’s talented, young, inexpensive, and projects as a future All Star.  But thus far he hasn’t shown the ability to quickly adjust, which has held him back from becoming the best player on the best team in baseball, a title he’s quite capable of holding. 

Here’s hoping he’s just a slow learner.

Since a couple days ago I talked about not who should win the AL MVP but about who will win it, today I’m going to do mostly the opposite in analyzing the AL Cy Young race.  Why the change?  In this case there’s really only three guys with any sort of realistic shot, and one who stands alone as the clear-cut favorite.  That man is Cliff Lee.

Lee leads the league in winning percentage, wins, and ERA, and is second in innings pitched and third in WHIP.  He’s also got a nifty 5.58 K/BB ratio and holds the eighth spot in overall strike outs.  So, he’ll be winning the damn thing.  Done.

The only other two options are Francisco Rodriguez and Roy Halladay.

K-Rod likely will end 2008 with the all-time saves record, but other than that somewhat noteworthy acheivement (sardonic emphasis on somewhat), he’s really having a rather average season for a quality closer.  He’s on pace for a 2.81 ERA in 68 innings.  Yawn.

That leaves us the Canadian Ace, Mr. Halladay.  Roy has thrown 20.1 more innings than Lee and has a slightly better WHIP (1.04 to 1.08), but the tall righty’s ERA stands at .21 runs per 9 higher than his contemporary.  So, based on the discrepancy in records (Lee is 17-2 and Halladay is 14-9), Lee’s going to win.  The problem is I’m not sure he should.

I view the Cy Young as the award for the best pitcher in the league.  The best pitcher is the guy who gives his team the best chance to win as often as possible, in my humble opinion.  That means performance and durability are essential.  And Lee falls just short of matching Halladay in that combo.

The difference is innings pitched.  When two pitchers have ERAs within a small range of each other, if one pitches substantially more innings than the other, he is more valuable.  Call it the certainty factor.

Halladay’s 20.1 extra innings at a 2.64 ERA are tremendously valuable.  Finding the necessary relievers to provide those innings at that success rate is costly, and places a stress on the rest of the pitching staff.  Having a guy provide as many outs as Halladay is a huge benefit to his team.  So, it’s important to understand that if a guy throws five shutout innings, that’s tremendous, but giving up 2 runs over 7 or 8 innings is actually better in the abstract. 

Thus Roy Halladay is more valuable than someone like Pedro Martinez in his later Boston years, despite the fact that Pedro was more dominant.  Rich Harden is a great current example–he’s more dominant per outing but contributes less overall to his team.  Come playoff time, you’d rather have the zeros up on the board–it’s a tiny sample size and you can tax your pen as much as you need to–but during the regular season, which the Cy Young is based solely upon, you sometimes choose quantity over quality.

So, what does all this mean?  Nothing.  But for those of you who haven’t realized what a pitcher Roy Halladay is, appreciate him now, because he might just be a shell of his former self in a year or two from, of all things, overuse.

• Usain Bolt is the coolest man in the world.  There is no one I’d rather be than Usain Bolt, with the lone possible exception of Snoop Dogg.  Bolt owns the competition.  He’s so fast that he obliterates world records and celebrates that fact long before he finishes the race.  He also does that cool lightning bolt thing before he runs, and is tall and jacked.  Sounds like an ideal wide receiver.  Only if he signed with an NFL team instead of celebrating and having fun like he does now, Skip Bayless and the No Fun League would freak out and convince people that enjoying the game is inherently wrong.
• Jed Lowrie is solid.  He’s infinitely better than Julio Lugo, who my roommate calls “The Drunk” and had a domestic violence dispute long before he started being absolutely terrible at baseball.  Lowrie could be our replacement for Lugo next year, and then perhaps Mike Lowell in a couple more if this year’s #1 pick, Casey Kelly, remains at the 5 on your box score.  I love all the players the Boston system has started producing, but the next wave–Lars Anderson, Josh Reddick, et al–are going to have to produce big offensive numbers now that Manny’s gone, Bay’ll likely be gone after next year, and Papi’s nearing the end of his prime.
• The NBA East is actually getting better now.  With the Jermaine O’Neal and Mo Williams trades making the Cavs and Raptors much scarier, the signing of Elton Brand by Philly, and the arrival of Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley, things are finally started to get interesting on the elder coast.  I would push the number of bonafied conference title contenders to five, Boston, Detroit, Philly, Toronto, and Cleveland, with Orlando a tiny notch below (one or two smart moves away).
• Ben Gordon is insane.  He thinks he’s worth star money when he only has one skill–granted the one that generally earns the most–and is short for his position.  From Jordan to Gordon?  Not so much.
• Autumn means falling leaves, crisp nights, and the best time of the year to be a sports fan.  October will be here before you know it; hopefully Dane Cook won’t be its spokesperson this time around.
• Brett Favre is to ESPN as Barack Obama is to CNN.

Since it’s nigh September and that means the end of the season, I’ve decided it’s time for pointless MVP banter!

But, what you’re not going to get here is an argument as to who should win the MVP, because that concept is really irrelevant. I don’t vote, and neither do Rob Neyer or Keith Law, but nearly-distinct dinosaurs (read: not yet bought out sportswriters) do. And they LOVE RBI. Runs Batted In. Mention the term and MVP voters turn into virgin, pubescent boys–all they can think about is scoring.

Granted, an RBI means a run scored, but it really doesn’t tell us much else. And don’t get too angry at me for saying this–I’ve played the game plenty (at a higher level than the majority of ballplayers), watched the game obsessively, and read and thought about it more than is healthy–but counting runs batted in is mostly a waste of time. There is only one instance when you can create an RBI all by yourself (a homerun), and all other occurrences require a teammate to do at least half the work. So, forget RBI when thinking objectively and analytically on your own time. BUT, when thinking about MVP voters, keep RBI central to the discussion. The only thing MVP voters like more than RBI is winning–another statistic based substantially on the performance of others. Oh, and a damned good story–they are writers, after all.

SO, I will now give my top 5 2008 AL MVP candidates based on what the voters will likely choose:

1. Carlos Quentin-.965 OPS, 91 RBI, 33 HR, 69-53 team record, no one saw this happening so quickly
2. Josh Hamilton-.917 OPS, 112 RBI, everyone’s favorite former-flameout, 61-62 team record
3. Kevin Youkilis-.964 OPS, 83 RBI, versatile, first Jewish MVP since Hank Greenberg?, 71-51 team record
4. Alex Rodriguez-.983 OPS, 72 RBI, Madonna Drama!, 65-58 team record
5. Ian Kinsler-.888 OPS, 70 RBI (from a second baseman!), actually having a phenomenal season, should have started at the ASG over Dustin Pedroia, 61-62 team record

So, it looks like Carlos Quentin is the favorite halfway through August. Milton Bradley might be having the best season on the Rangers but he’s an angry (black–which may or may not play a part) man who DHs for a second-place team so that won’t be happening. Kevin Youkilis is a real threat, but given that he’s one of the most hated players in the game and his team is in second place (despite the fact that Boston has a better record than the White Sox, their division standing will somehow matter to voters), he probably will not be taking the award. Alex Rodriguez remains the best overall player in the game, but third place on the Yankees won’t cut it, especially since he missed time. Ian Kinsler is having a better season than Josh Hamilton, but they’ll split their votes and most will go to Hamilton and his infinite RBI anyway. That leaves Quentin, who fulfills the love for RBI, brings a nice “Who woulda thunk that?” storyline, and plays for a winner in a big market.

Now that’s valuable.

At least they’re not throwing bananas at soccer players of African descent.

Recently, the Spanish Men’s Olympic Basketball Team posed for a full-squad photo. An act that should have been innoculous enough, especially considering the frequency with which it occurs, went slightly awry, as some of you may have heard. The photo, shot for an advertising campaign run by Li-Ning Footwear, featured the entire team pulling their eyelids to the sides to play on the “slant-eye” appearance of the Chinese company’s billion-strong consumer audience.

Henry Abbott, author of the widely-read basketball blog TrueHoop, shared his opinion on the matter yesterday:

“To my way of thinking, that photo was the exact kind of callous, stupid, and juvenile behavior that used to take place all over the world, but has slowed dramatically now that people have begun to realize that different kinds of people all over the world are complex humans with emotions, too. Call it political correctness if you want, but here, in the United States of 2008, I think just about everyone knows this photo would hurt feelings.

But I really don’t know much about the frame of reference from which these young Spanish men made the call. By their comments in response, the players all seem to think of themselves as innocent and open-minded. They were being “affectionate” said one. The idea that it was racist was “absurd” said another.”

Quite simply, Abbott is dead on. It’s the inability to see the effects of your actions on others that marks immaturity. Why not have a food fight? Someone else will clean it up. Who cares if I make fun of her acne? She should get it fixed if she doesn’t want us to laugh.

In my somewhat limited experience with Spanish culture (I’ve spent about two months in the country), immaturity on racial issues seems to be a serious problem. Absurd advertising that demeans entire cultures is nothing new. While in Spain I saw countless products featuring chocolate babies who couldn’t possibly be misconstrued as anything other than a characature of a monkey infant. Just take a look for yourself.

Deeply disturbed after my first viewing of such repugnant packaging I asked an educated, elegant, enlightened world traveller, Pedro, who hails from Leon, how such a product could sell?

“We don’t think like you Americans here,” he replied. “We don’t think everything is racist.”

Now, not thinking like an American is nothing to be ashamed of, but employing willful ignorance is. In short, this train of though is stupid–we ought to know better.

So how could this possibly happen just in time for the world’s most international event? As Chris Chase writes, under the auspices of Yahoo.com’s Fourth Place Medal blog, it’s nothing short of incredible:

“It’s baffling that nobody involved in the picture — from the photographers to the players — even seemed to consider that this ad would be looked at negatively. Did it not occur to somebody that it might not be a good idea to mock a large portion of the continent before the world’s largest athletic competition that, by the way, happens to take place on that continent. Were they not aware of an invention called “the Internet” that allows pictures taken in Spain to be transmitted all over the world for the eyes of everyone?”

So, for the untold number of people involved in planning and implementing this advertising campaign, as well as those who claim to look past racial differences so far that racism isn’t racism, I think it’s time to grow up. After all, it’s the 21st century, and at least where I’m from, 21 means adulthood.

Some might say the Red Sox hit two byrds with one stone with their most recent trade.

I wouldn’t, because that would be a terrible pun.  However, Theo’s latest transaction follows suit with the general Boston philosophy of stockpiling cheap assets in the hopes of overcoming injuries. 

Byrd provides a semi-serviceable starter for a team that has struggled to field one in its fifth spot in the rotation and just lost its most reliable starter to, essentially, old age.  Charlie Zink is a decent option to replace his fellow knuckleballer right now but going more than start to start with him isn’t something Terry Francona’s going to want to do in the thick of a pennant race, especially with Clay Buchholz sporting an ERA rising more rapidly than gas prices. 

Whether Paul Byrd will be the guy who has dominated since the All Star Break or the pitcher whose ERA away from Jacobs Field this season is a robust 5.56 remains anyone’s guess, but his arrival means another option for the Sox.  Between Byrd, Charlie Zink, Bartolo Colon, Clay Buchholz, David Pauley, and Michael Bowden, Boston has at least given itself a solid shot in its hunt for October.

*** 

While deals similar to the Indians sending Paul Byrd to the Red Sox for a couple coupons and a free ride on Baltic in Monopoly happen often after the July 31st trade deadline, moving a quality player like Adam Dunn occurs much more infrequently.

Dunn brings power and patience, perhaps the perfect antidote for an offense so barren these days you’d think Persephone had gone missing.  He’ll likely be nothing more than the equivalent of a summer sublet, but he’ll be the ultimate short-term pad.  The move positions Arizona for a run at the bronze medal of division titles, and gives baseball’s latest and most western fertility-drug-produced twin a nice comeback in the back-and-forth with the Motivated Mannys from L.A., who rest a mere game back of the first place Diamondbacks.

For a team that made it to the NLCS last year and has fallen on hard times despite a talented roster a move of this order fits like a classic pair of jeans.  Dunn will help keep the team afloat in the hopes that it can find its early-season form and follow its dynamic top of the rotation to a series victory or two in the playoffs before the start of the slaughter that the World Series has become.